Project Jupiter · Brand-safety forensics · 24 Jul 2026 refresh

How 543 negative commenters
sort into 18 clusters

Every commenter whose comment was scored Negative on a sponsored Project Jupiter post was placed in exactly one cluster (positive and neutral commenters are excluded). Each card shows what defines the cluster, its detailed characteristics, its full member list, and — where a cluster is built from the follow-graph — the accounts its members follow. The clusters collapse into three regimes.

543 negative commenters 366 Instagram · 177 TikTok 18 clusters 3 regimes 175 NM · 45 US · 22 foreign · 301 unknown
24 Jul refresh — what changed. The population grew by +85 negative commenters (now 543; 5 earlier handles dropped). Those 85 were added after the 14 Jul comment-ledger snapshot, so they carry profile + location + partial follow-graph data but no comment text or timing — they cannot be tested for the slogan/burst behavior that defines the Manufactured regime. They are placed provisionally by profile, location, and follow-graph into Organic NM (26) or Noise (59), and are flagged as such in the export. The Manufactured findings (astroturf, dormancy, slogan kit) are unchanged — same comment ledger, same 106 accounts. What genuinely refreshes below is the population, the follow-graph coverage, and the full geographic picture.

How to read the signals on each card

Slogans posted
how many members posted a recognizable anti-Jupiter slogan (e.g. “NO TO PROJECT JUPITER”, “protect our water”).
In timed bursts
how many commented inside a pile-on of ≥5 distinct accounts within 30 minutes on one post.
NM-rooted
how many are tied to New Mexico — by their own bio/handle, or because ≥10% of the accounts they follow are NM.
Distributions
each cluster shows a follower and post histogram; the solid line = median, dashed line = mean. A big median/mean gap flags a few large accounts skewing an otherwise tiny cluster.
Focus
an analyst priority weight, 0–100 (higher = more worth attention). Not a probability.

Manufactured

10620%

Ran a shared slogan script in timed bursts on ~8 posts. Dominated by dormant-reactivated, throwaway, and content-less accounts. This is the astroturf. Unchanged this refresh.

Organic NM

16731%

Real New-Mexico locals — activists wired into local orgs, plus everyday NM creators. Genuine opposition, not bots. +26 provisional this refresh.

Noise

27050%

One-off hostility with no NM tie and no coordination, plus emoji-only reactions. Half the set — deprioritize. +59 provisional this refresh.